Legislative Kyrgyz nationalists leading but not winning

Written by Sandeep Nehra

The nationalist opposition party Ata-Jourt arrived slightly ahead of legislative elections in Kyrgyzstan, according to results released Monday, but no clear majority emerged is polling in this country beset by divisions and accustomed to violence.

The president of this former Soviet republic in Central Asia, Rosa Otunbayeva, welcomed the first free elections in his country since its independence from the USSR.

“All the Kyrgyz were able to vote free from any pressure of any diktat from any manipulation,” she said in a speech to the nation.

The Election Observation Mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has also welcomed a vote “in all respects fundamental freedoms” and constituting “a further step towards consolidating the democratic process.”

This positive picture is even more remarkable that the OSCE is generally critical of elections in Central Asia, because of massive fraud in favor of the ruling parties.

For his part, President Barack Obama praised Kyrgyz voters who have proven they were “committed to choose their government peacefully and democratically”, but regretting that the poll was marred by irregularities.

The Electoral Commission has not yet published estimates in terms of seats and has revealed that percentages for non-registered voters and voters as it usually use.

After counting nearly 99% of polling stations, the nationalist-Ata Jourt get 8.81%, narrowly ahead of the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan, a pro-government movement (8.01%). The opposition party Ar-Namys, backed by Moscow, is third (7.67%).

Follow Respublika, a newcomer on the political scene, and the surprise of the poll, the favorite pro-government Ata-Meken which only gets 5.65%.

It is already clear that a coalition will be needed to govern this country beset by divisions and which was a spring with a bloody revolution in April that toppled President Kurmanbek Bakiyev (87 dead), then in June of ethnic violence have claimed hundreds of victims in the South, mostly in the Uzbek minority.

The good score of Ata-Jourt, which brings together many leaders of the regime of deposed president could revive tensions. This party, which is under investigation for incitement to hatred, reject the political aspirations of the country’s minorities, particularly Uzbeks.

Local media are expecting tough negotiations to form a majority in Parliament, while Kyrgyzstan has become the first Central Asian country with a parliamentary system.

“It is too early to talk about political stability in Kyrgyzstan. The distribution of forces is such that the threat of disintegration of Parliament is real,” notes the newspaper online Parus.

All parties have nevertheless pledged to work to build a stable coalition. “We have not yet begun consultations and we have no preferences for the moment,” said Kamtchybek Tachiev and the head of Ata-Jourt.

Omurbek Babanov of Respublika voiced conviction that the “parties find a compromise”, and Felix Kulov, leader of Ar-Namys and favorite of the Kremlin felt it was necessary to “go ahead and put aside ambitions personal.”

According to Alexei Malashenko, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center, Ar-Namys could play a key role in forming a coalition, which would allow Moscow to have his “strong man” in the heart of the Kyrgyz power.

Kyrgyzstan is the only country to host a Russian military base and an American. This is essential to deploy foreign troops in Afghanistan.

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